Source: Adrian Kraus
Every year, people are getting smarter at fantasy football. One knowledge area where fantasy players are getting better at, are quarterbacks. By now, a lot of people know how valuable dual-threat quarterbacks are compared to pocket passers, as they have the ability to score a lot more fantasy points using their feet. Look at the results of 2024: Of the top 5 quarterbacks, 4 of them are categorized as dual-threat quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts). Looking at the 2024 fantasy playoffs, of the top-15 players on play-off teams, 3 of the dual-threat quarterbacks were in these teams (https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/42899541/fantasy-football-playoffs-2024-most-common-players-rosters)
But, is it all sunshine and rainbows when drafting these elite quarterbacks? What do you have to give up when you draft one of these quarterbacks instead of streaming the position? That’s what we are going to investigate in this article: What strategy has proven to be more successful – drafting an elite QB in the first rounds or streaming the position?
Methodology
Before we dive into the data and the fantasy draft implications, we first have to know what data is used in order to give some context to the data.
- All data you are seeing is used from the last 5 seasons. Why such a short time-period you’re asking? Because the quarterback landscape in fantasy context has changed a lot. Dual-threat quarterbacks are getting more and more popular, so to make sure I am using this trend in our data, only the last 5 seasons are used.
- When talking about ‘Elite Quarterbacks’, I am referring to the top 6 of a season when looking at ADP. Note: Dak Prescott in 2020 and Joe Burrow in 2023 are excluded from the data, because they didn’t meet the threshold for minimum games played in a season of 11.
- When talking about ‘Streaming Quarterbacks’, I am referring to all quarterbacks drafted in round 11 or later. Also, quarterbacks who weren’t drafted at all are included. In this case, round 11 equals pick #132, which is most of the years around QB 16.
- When talking about opportunity cost, I am talking about players who are within 2.5 picks or the player mentioned looking at ADP. So if a player has an ADP of 10, I am looking at other players around him from ADP 7.5 to 12.5.
Scoring trends for Elite QBs
When we are drafting an elite quarterback, we are hoping and assuming they will score a lot of points for us. Or, at least a lot more points than the quarterbacks who are drafted much later or even become undrafted. Let’s dive into this and have a look at how the elite quarterbacks have performed over the years.
| Season | Average Points per Game | Standard Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 23.28 | 1.10 |
| 2021 | 20.76 | 2.07 |
| 2022 | 21.49 | 3.79 |
| 2023 | 20.09 | 2.34 |
| 2024 | 19.18 | 4.84 |
What does this table tell us? Well, the average fantasy points per game is decreasing every year, with the exception of 2022. This means that the elite quarterbacks on average are performing worse in fantasy football every year. A trend we don’t like to see when we are drafting our elite quarterbacks.
I have also included the standard deviation. This number tells us how much variation there is among the elite quarterbacks every season in average points per game. The lower the number, the more similar the elite quarterbacks are scoring. In this case, the 2020 season shows us the highest average points per game, and the lowest standard deviation – meaning all quarterbacks scored equally. This can also be seen when we are looking at the elite quarterbacks in 2020 and their fantasy output:
- Patrick Mahomes: 24.96 PPG
- Lamar Jackson: 22.19 PPG
- Kyler Murray: 23.67 PPG
- Deshaun Watson: 23.08 PPG
- Russell Wilson: 22.49 PPG
So, between the top elite quarterback and the worst elite quarterback, there is only a small difference of 2.8 PPG. The opposite is seen in the 2024 season, where the average is low and the standard deviation is high. This could indicate some high performing elite quarterbacks and some elite quarterbacks with real down years. As we may remember (or you have erased it from your memory), CJ Stround and Anthony Richardson were really disappointing, whereas Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were great.
The disappointing year of both Stround and Richardson are reflected in the average over the 2024 season as well. I have also included the 75th percentile Elite QB’s in the graph. This tells us how the top-2 quarterbacks performed in a certain week.
The graph tells us how the top 2 of a certain season scored when comparing their fantasy output to the weekly average of the whole Elite QB’s of that season. It’s no big surprise that in 2020, the difference between only the top-2 and the whole group isn’t that high, seeing that the standard deviation in this season was very low. In the seasons with higher standard deviations, the top-2 quarterbacks are performing consistently higher than the whole group.
Introducing Frankenstein: The best Streamer
Frankenstein is our best ultimate streamer. In this case it means choosing the best scoring streamer every single week. In this part, we are finding out what is possible if you choose the best scoring streamer quarterback every single week.
The charts above tell already a lot. If we would have our Frankenstein, we would outperform all the elite quarterbacks in every single year. The smallest difference can be found in 2021, where our Frankenstein QB outperformed the best scoring elite quarterback (Josh Allen) by only 1.9 FPPG. The biggest difference can be found in 2020, where our Frankenstein QB outperformed Patrick Mahomes by 5.1 FPPG.
But, how realistic is it that we always stream the best quarterback? You need a lot of skill, effort and especially luck to get this all right. Obviously, we are not going to look at the Frankenstein QB data and say: ‘The article is done, if you pick the best streaming QB every week, you will outperform all Elite QB’s’. In this part, we will look at a more realistic scenario, where we use the average of multiple streaming options every week.
And, if you wonder how a Frankenstein QB would look like, this is what AI thinks. Although, it looks more like a character from Blood Bowl to me.
The streamer average
A more realistic approach is to look at the top streamers of each week. This means we need less luck to get one of these quarterbacks in our lineup. In this case, I have chosen to use the top-6 streaming quarterbacks of each individual week. Let’s have a look at how these scores pan out.
The graphs above tell us the average score of the top-6 scores in a certain week when looking at streaming QB’s. The 75th percentile (meaning the top-2 streaming options of that week) are shown as well. You can see a lot of similarities in the pattern of both lines, but the average of the top-2 is consistently higher, which is as expected. Another observation is the number of outliers in the graphs. Some seasons, like 2020 and 2024 have a lot of spikes in the data, meaning some weeks were very good, but the next week it went down again. Other seasons, like 2022 and 2023 show a more consistent image where the spike weeks are a lot less.
Now, how do the streaming QB’s and Elite QB’s compare to each other? The images below tell the story.
Looking at the graphs when comparing the Elite – and Streaming QB’s averages, we see that in most weeks the streamer average is close to the elite average, especially in 2023 and 2024, where the weekly top-6 streaming QB’s outscore the Elite QB’s a lot of times. Also, when looking at play-off weeks from week 15 to 17, a lot of times the streaming QB’s outscore the Elite QB’s.
When looking at the 75th percentile, we are looking at the top-2 streamers per week and the top-2 Elite QB’s scoring the most fantasy points in that season. The first thing to note is that Elite QB’s have more spike weeks compared to Streamer QB’s, but they don’t have a lot of down weeks compared to streamers. Although, when looking at the graphs, there is not much difference when comparing both top-2’s when looking at the patterns. A lot of weeks are comparable. Still, you have to know and be lucky to draft any of those 2 streamers to make sure you can be on-par with the top-2 Elite QB’s of that year.
Who is more reliable?
With all those data and graphs, what can we say about the reliability of both groups? When looking at Elite QB’s, especially the top-2, we see that they are often very reliable in what their floor is in fantasy football. They can also have some spike weeks. Also, when drafting an Elite QB, you can set-and-forget them in your lineup, without having to worry every week what streamer you are going to pick-up and if they are already on another team or not.
Streamer QB’s on the other hand show that the difference isn’t that big in fantasy points per game when comparing both the top-6 and top-2 of both groups. Also, Elite QB’s play most of the time at very competitive teams, who are at the end of the regular season not required to go all out, because they have already secured their play-off spot. This can harm Elite QB’s in their fantasy output.
So, both groups have their pros and cons. But there is another aspect which we have not touched upon yet. When drafting an Elite QB, you are drafting them most of the time in round 3 or 4 (or even 2 if you are very aggressive). That means you cannot spend that pick on another position, where you need more depth, like wide receiver and running back. In that regard, let’s talk about opportunity cost for Elite QB’s.
The opportunity cost
The opportunity cost means: What players can’t I draft in order to draft this Elite QB? Drafting an Elite QB at the top of the 3rd round? That means you cannot get that high-upside receiver, because his average draft position (ADP) is also in the 3rd round.
In this article, I have looked at the ADP of the Elite QB’s and created some combinations where the difference between drafting an Elite QB or streaming the position is shown. Combo A shows the Elite QB of that year with a wide receiver or running back around pick 130 (round 11). Combo B shows a wide receiver or running back with a maximum variety of ADP with the Elite QB of 2.5 positions and the average streamer top-6 score.
I am warning you: The combo with the Elite QB does win sometimes, but not as much as you would think.
Some combos
| Season | Combo A | FPPG | Combo B | FPPG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kyler Murray + George Pickens | 18.2 + 9.8 = 28 | Mike Evans + Streaming Avg | 11.3 + 20.2 = 31.5 | 3.5 FPPG | |
| 2022 | Josh Allen + Garrett Wilson | 24.7 + 12.7 = 37.4 | Nick Chubb + Streaming Avg | 16.6 + 20.2 = 36.8 | 0.6 FPPG | |
| 2023 | Patrick Mahomes + Raheem Mostert | 17.5 + 17.8 = 35.3 | A.J. Brown + Streaming Avg | 17.0 + 21.3 = 38.3 | 3.0 FPPG | |
| 2024 | Jalen Hurts + Khalil Shakir | 21 + 12.2 = 33.2 | Mike Evans + Streaming Avg | 17.2 + 21.6 = 38.8 | 5.6 FPPG | |
| 2024 | Lamar Jackson + Chuba Hubbard | 25.3 + 16.1 = 41.4 | Michael Pittman + Streaming Avg | 10.4 + 21.6 = 32 | 9.4 FPPG |
As seen in the table, some combos show that the combo with the Elite QB scores more fantasy points per game than the streaming option. But, there are some remarks. When looking at the 2022 example of Josh Allen and Garrett Wilson, the difference between Combo A and Combo B is just 0.6 FPPG. And this is with the fact that Garrett Wilson was an outlier at his ADP, because all the skill players around him scored less than 10 FPPG. So, if you drafted any other player than Wilson, Combo B would win. This means you needed to take a swing at the right player, or you would have lost.
Another example is 2023, where Mahomes was drafted as the Elite QB. In this example, I even used Mostert as the late round flyer, because he had a league winning season, finishing as the RB2. Even with A.J. Brown, who didn’t have an outlier season, and the streaming QB option, would beat Combo A by 3.0 FPPG.
The last example with Lamar Jackson in 2024 showed the worst case scenario for Combo B, where you drafted Lamar Jackson and Chuba Hubbard who both had excellent seasons for where they were drafted. Michael Pittman on the other hand had a real down season, and the streaming option didn’t average nearly as much fantasy points as Lamar.
What should you do in 2025?
A lot of information, but what does this mean for the way you draft in 2025? Well.. it depends. Both strategies of drafting an Elite QB or streaming the position do have their pros and cons. Let’s list them and I will end with my personal recommendation.
Why should I draft an Elite QB?
- If you have some late round WR/RB sleepers who are expected to go in round 11, you can take the Elite QB in round 3 or 4, knowing that you have this position covered.
- You expect the Elite QB to be a top-2 finisher this year, not just a top-6 finisher.
- Your league has 6 points passing TD’s or some less active manager (which means less competition for streaming WRs or RBs)
- You want the positional advantage and go with the set-and-forget mindset.
Why should I stream the position?
- You are drafting in a deep or competitive league, where you want as much depth in your WR and RB position
- You want to load up on your value picks in round 3-8
- You are confident and willing to investigate streaming QB matchups (for example researching what streaming QB’s play bad defenses)
- You plan to double-dip on QB’s and take a safe-floor streaming QB with a high-upside QB
My personal recommendation
Let me start by saying that I’m not going to recommend one strategy all the time. It also depends on how the draft falls. Are you drafting in the late 3rd round and Lamar is still there? I would take the shot. But, if you have some WRs or RBs who you really like, and you know you are not getting them if you draft a QB now, I would suggest waiting and streaming the QB position.
In general, I would say: If you are confident that the Elite QB will be the QB1 or QB2 this season, you are okay with the opportunity cost and you have identified some sleepers in the later rounds, go for the QB. If you are not sure about the Elite QB, fade him. Target two late-round QB’s with upside and stream the position early using the waiver wire. This way, you can use your draft capital where it matters most: at WR and RB.
“Want to know who to actually target at QB this year? Grab my free 2025 draft kit for updated streaming tiers and rankings.”
