Introduction
Every year, fantasy players draft handcuff running backs, because maybe your RB1 is getting hurt and you are having his replacement already. In this article, I’m looking at the facts about drafting handcuff RBs. What do you gain, but also, what is the opportunity cost? The central question in this article is: Does drafting a handcuff RB prove valuable or is it a myth? Let’s dive into the facts!
Before we go ahead, let’s define what a handcuff RB is: a handcuff RB is the back-up to the starting running back that is (most likely) taking over as the RB1 when the starter is out due to injury, suspension or other circumstances. Handcuff RB’s can become league winners if the starter is out for an extended period and you don’t have to spend a lot for acquiring the handcuff running back. But, drafting a handcuff RB does mean you have some opportunity cost associated with that draft pick, that’s why we are also comparing wide receivers who are drafted in the same rounds to get an overview of the opportunity cost.
Methodology
The data that is used for this article comes from multiple sources:
- ADP data comes from FantasyPros
- Most data comes from the NFLReadr dataset
- 2025 roster data comes from ESPN
All data is used from 2019 to 2024 (and 2025 only for the depth charts).
When talking about RB1’s, we talk about the top-24 running backs drafted based on ADP. Most leagues start at least 2 running backs, and because 12-team leagues are most common, we focus on the top-24 running backs.
When we look at handcuff running backs, we look mostly at the running backs drafted in rounds 10-15. This is at the end of the draft, when people are more likely to draft back-ups, because the real value picks and starting players are off the board.
Now that the data sources are known, let’s get into the good stuff, what did the data tell us?!
Handcuff Running Backs
As mentioned in the introduction, handcuff RBs are the clear back-ups to the starter. They will be starting for the team when the RB1 is out. In fantasy football, a lot of times this is used in the later rounds to make sure players do have the direct back up of a running back they have drafted in the earlier rounds.
Some examples for the 2025 season are:
- Bijan Robinson drafted in round 1, Tyler Allgeier drafted in the double digit rounds
- Chuba Hubbard drafted in round 5, Rico Dowdle drafted in the double digit rounds
It is also possible that the handcuff is not quite clear, or there will be a committee backfield when the starter is out. Usually, we see that just one player of this committee is drafted, or that none of them is drafted until there is more clarity. Then, you see that the people get aggressive on the waiver wire to get the handcuff on their team.
Injury rates of the RB1’s
Handcuff RBs are drafted to secure the clear back-up of the starter when he misses time. Missing time can be the case when multiple things happen, but the most obvious one is when the starter is getting injured. So, in order to answer our question if it’s valuable to draft a handcuff RB, let’s have a look at the injury rates of RB1’s.
During a game, running backs do get a lot of hits. Therefore it’s not very uncommon for them to miss one game in a season due to injury or caution, especially when there is not much to play for anymore and the end of the regular season. It becomes more interesting, especially for the back-ups, when the starter misses 3 or more games. That means the back-up has the possibility to make an impact for fantasy, because he can get some big points in 3 weeks. When looking at the data from 2020, we see the following numbers when looking at RB1’s:
As the graph shows, over the past 5 seasons, at least 33% of the RB1s are out for 3 or more games during the regular season.
Injury Prone RB1s
We all know the talks about how scared people are to draft CMC early, because he is injury prone. But how does he compare to other RB1s over the past seasons in how injury prone the RB1s are? Let’s have a look.
| Player | Seasons with 3+ games out to injury |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 |
| Cam Akers | 2 |
| D’Andre Swift | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 |
The table above shows us 13 players, who are still somewhat relevant in fantasy football, who have missed 3 or more games in multiple seasons due to injury over the last 5 seasons. Four of them (including Clyde Edwards Helaire…), have missed 3 or more games in 3 seasons. When looking at the names of players who missed 3 or more games in 3 seasons, these are all players who are expected to have high draft capital in the 2025 draft, excluding CEH of course.
But, what does it mean when one of the RB1s is out for multiple games? How do their handcuffs perform? Let’s find out in the next part!
Hit rates of handcuffs
As seen in the previous part, for the last 5 seasons at least 33% of the RB1s by ADP were out for 3 or more games in a season due to injury. This is including the 2024 season, which is widely seen as an outlier in the limited amount of big injuries the RB1s had. But when these RB1s are out, do handcuffs bring viable fantasy numbers, or isn’t it really worth it?
How handcuffs perform
Once a RB1 is out, fantasy managers run to the waiver wire and try to outbid all other managers for the handcuff who might be a league winner this year. But, how do these handcuffs historically perform when the RB1 is out?
As the plot above shows us, and without surprise, when the RB1 was playing the handcuffs did far worse compared to when the RB1 was out. An interesting fact, with an outlier in 2022, is that the fantasy points when the RB1 was out are rising every year, and since the last 2 years the handcuffs even put up RB1 numbers.
Also, when looking at startable weeks for the handcuffs (10+ fantasy points per game), we see a rise in percentages as well. With the RB1 playing, handcuffs post around 20% of the weeks as startable. This includes players who were the back-up in the beginning of the season, but took over the starting job because of their performance. When the RB1 is out, 30% of the weeks for handcuffs are startable, a big gain!
So yeah, when looking at these numbers, we see a big shift in borderline startable handcuffs (until 2022), to RB1 numbers in 2023 and 2024. Does this mean we should now be more aggressive in drafting handcuffs, because then can deliver when the starter is out? There is some more data, so let’s have a look.
Some examples
When a handcuff becomes the starter, because of an injury or any other circumstance, there are a few factors which come into play: can they handle the workload? Can they handle the pressure of being the starter? Let’s see what handcuffs do deliver when the RB1 is out, but also have a look at handcuffs who couldn’t deliver.
Zach Charbonnet
Looking at players who delivered when the starter was out, Charbonnet stands out. Both in 2023 and 2024, Kenneth Walker missed time due to injuries. Every time Walker was out, Charbonnet scored more than 10 fantasy points in a game. And with Walker having the name to be injury prone, Charbonnet does have quite some games as the starter.
Alexander Mattison
Maybe not the most sexy name in fantasy football, but when Mattison is the backup and the starter is out, he delivers. Especially in 2021 in Minnesota, when he was the handcuff to Dalvin Cook. In the 4 games Cook was out, Mattison scored no less than 16 fantasy points in a game. Although, he suffered a season-ending neck injury in pre-season for the 2025 season. It is to be seen how he comes back from the surgery.
Tyler Allgeier
Allgeier is already 2 years the handcuff to Bijan Robinson, but do we know how many games Bijan missed in that period? Exactly, 0 (not counting the game in 2023 where he played 1 snap before being pulled, fantasy managers will remember). So what does that mean? Well, Allgeier is already 2 years a wasted spot on fantasy managers benches. He does have some startable and even spike weeks (more than 15 fantasy points per game), but it’s Russian roulette to know when they will appear.
2024 Rookies
The 2024 rookie running back class wasn’t the best, but there was some optimism for some of the rookies, looking at ADPs. So, how did they deliver? Well.. they weren’t needed. The 3 rookies who are eligible as handcuffs (Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Jaylen Wright) saw their starters play all the regular season games until week 17. And even looking at their average fantasy points with the RB1 on their team playing, they all averaged under 4 fantasy points per game. So all these rookies can be categorized in 2024 as ‘wasted bench spots’.
How often do handcuffs turn into valuable players?
What makes a handcuff in the end a valuable player? In this cases it means that the handcuff should have at least 2 or more weeks where he scores 10 or more fantasy points, but also those weeks should come primarily from the period that the starter was out. Else, we don’t know when we should start the handcuff and they will go off when the chance is very low that you would have started them. Also, when there was just one week where the handcuff scored 10 or more fantasy points while the starter was out, this is counted as ‘partially valuable’.
Here are the facts: In the last 5 seasons, where a running back drafted in the top-24 running backs had a back-up who was drafted in rounds 10-15, only 23% of the handcuffs were hits. In 59% of the cases, the player was a miss, either because the starter didn’t miss any games, or the player didn’t play well at all when the starter was out. In 18% of the cases, the handcuff delivered just one viable fantasy week in a season.
So 1 out of 4 of the drafted handcuffs in rounds 10-15 will give you something back for their draft price. How good or bad is this, and are you willing to take that chance if you have someone like Guerendo or Charbonnet in 2025, when their starters are known for their injury history? Well, it’s important to know the opportunity cost before making such a call.
Opportunity cost: Handcuff RB vs late-round WR
Taking a handcuff RB in rounds 10-15 means you won’t be able to get a wide receiver who has a chance to make the starting line-up as wide receiver two or three. In this part, we will look at the opportunity cost of handcuff RBs and late-round WRs who are both drafted in rounds 10-15.
Since 2020, a total of 180 wide receivers and running backs were drafted in rounds 10-15, that means 36 every year. This includes running backs who weren’t handcuffs to the top-24 running back, but also running backs where there was no clear path of who the running back 1 was in a given season.
When looking at the numbers, wide receivers drafted in these rounds mostly outscore the running backs by an average of 18 fantasy points per season. Not really a big difference, because this means around 1 fantasy point per game advantage for wide receivers. But, when looking at quantiles, the difference becomes slightly larger. The top 10% fantasy scores for wide receivers over the last 5 seasons is more than 224.54 fantasy points per game. For running backs, this is 198.04, a difference of 26.5 fantasy points over the course of a season.
Although, the upside for wide receivers to really be a league winner (in this case score > 200 fantasy points in a season) is much larger than for running backs. Out of the 26 late round players who achieved this milestone, 18 were wide receivers and 8 were running backs.
Out of those 8, only 3 of them were the clear back-ups to the RB1 who was drafted inside the top-24. Their names? Nyheim Hines in 2020, Jamaal Williams in 2022 and Jaylen Warren in 2023. So, as far as I see it, those numbers aren’t really great for handcuff RBs, when you can have WRs in the same draft range with a lot more upside.
How to handle my draft?
So, the question remains: should you draft a handcuff RB?
The data used in this article is clear, but there is some nuance to it. In the last 5 seasons, only 1 out of 4 drafted handcuff running backs paid off with multiple startable weeks. And even so, these running backs paid off most of the time due to injuries to their starters. Unless you are targeting a handcuff behind an injury prone running back (like CMC, Kenneth Walker or Saquon Barkley), your chances of getting meaningful production are limited.
Opportunity cost should also be taken into account in the rounds 10 to 15. In this range, wide receivers offer both a higher season-long fantasy output, though by just 1 point per game, but also have a better shot at being a league winner without relying purely on injuries.
So, based on this data, here are some practical tips for your upcoming 2025 fantasy football draft.
- Only draft handcuffs of top 24 running backs in specific cases: If the RB1 has a history of missing multiple weeks due to injury and the backup has shown he can deliver when the starter is out, consider drafting him. Examples for 2025 might be Zach Charbonnet or Isaac Guerendo.
- Avoid reaching for healthy RB1’s handcuffs: Players without a history of injury can still get injured, but don’t be too aggressive, because they have proven to be a wasted bench spot. Examples for this year are Tyler Allgeier and Blake Corum.
- Value late round WR upside over most handcuffs: If you are in doubt about a handcuff of a not so injury prone player or a WR with upside, value the WR. They have a bigger shot of breaking out without an injury in front of them. Also, league winning late round receivers are more common than late round running backs who are league winners.
- Keep an eye on the waiver wire: Not drafting too aggressively on handcuffs doesn’t mean you shouldn’t roster them at all. If you have drafted a receiver or tight end who doesn’t perform in the first weeks, you can always drop them for an insurance running back you believe would be a value. Also, a lot of times fantasy managers drop the handcuffs after a few weeks if they haven’t shown anything. So you could still get them, without spending a round 10 pick on them.
- Don’t be too fixated on your must-draft handcuff: Be flexible. If you drafted CMC and want to draft Isaac Guerendo later, but someone else drafted him before you, be flexible. Draft a receiver with high upside, who might be your fantasy surprise of the season and don’t be too focussed on drafting another handcuff if you are not 100% sure.
The bottom line, and therefore an answer to the question at the start of our article: Does drafting a handcuff RB prove valuable or is it a myth?
Drafting a handcuff RB can work, but the odds are not in your favor if you do not draft a proven backup behind a starter with some injury history. For most fantasy team builds, your bench spots are better used for standalone upside, instead of waiting for an injury to happen.
So, you are on the clock in round 11. You have drafted a RB1, and you are staring at his handcuff. Keep the following checklist in mind to determine if this pick is really the right one, or that you just want to feel safe with this handcuff:
- The RB1 of that team has a history of injuries
- The handcuff is known for providing solid fantasy numbers when being the starter
If both of these answers are ‘yes’, you can safely draft this guy. Else, think twice if you really want to make this pick.
