Source: nfl.com
Introduction
In 2024, the discussion regarding concussions was back again, this time mostly because of another concussion for Chris Olave but also for Tua Tagovailoa. Since 2013, the NFL started with its four-step concussion protocol. Updates to the protocol are made almost yearly, each time using new research from specialists in the field.
In this article, I am researching the impact of concussions on fantasy output of players. The main question is: Do concussions affect player availability and production in the long term?
Before we start, I’m already sharing one of the main stats from this article: Nearly 36% of the concussed players that were researched suffered multiple concussions.
Methodology
The data used is from 2012 to 2024. For this research, only the top-150 fantasy-relevant players per season are used, which had verified concussions events. If players also had concussion in seasons where they were not in the top-150, the event is still used in the data because I’m also counting the number of times a player had a concussion. In total, we are talking about 245 concussions. The data was gathered from nflreadr in combination with playerprofiler.
So, time to dive into the data. Do you want to know if you should draft a player with a concussion history? Read and learn.
Key findings
When looking at the data, it is clear what skill position receives the ball the most during a game and is represented the most in the dataset. This is the position having the most concussions, the wide receivers. The total number of concussions per position group don’t say much in this case, because we are only looking at the top 150 fantasy players per season. This could mean, for example, only 10 quarterbacks compared to 80 wide receivers. But, because the data is available, I will briefly mention the concussions per position group.
- Quarterbacks: 38 concussions
- Running backs: 53 concussions
- Wide receivers: 108 concussions
- Tight ends: 46 concussions.
Missed games per position group
When a concussion happens, players go into the concussion protocol. This has been an important rule since the 2013 season, but it was even more strict from 2016 onwards. Starting in the 2016 season, persons were appointed to be at the sideline and ensure players are tested for concussions. Also, fines were introduced if a team fails to remove a player from the game due to concussion. So, what do all the measures from 2016 onwards mean for the missed games per position group? Everything became more strict, so, when thinking very logically about it, the average of games missed after a concussion should be higher post 2015 season compared to pre 2016 season.
As we can see in the chart, every position group had a higher average of games missed from 2016 onwards compared to before the 2016 season. The big outlier in this case is the tight end position, where a few players were out for a large amount of time (remember Jordan Reed, Jordan Cameron or Vernon Davis?). Each of these missed 10+ games or even retired after their last concussion. But, even when removing the large outliers from the dataset, the missed games on average per concussion were still larger after the 2015 season than before the 2016 season (1.36 compared to 1.0).
So, we can conclude that the extra rules had an effect on the number of missed games on average when a concussion occurred.
Multiple concussions
Now, as said in the intro, in the 2024 season a lot of analysts were talking about the repeating number of concussions from both Olave and Tua. Let’s dive into our data and see how many players in our dataset had multiple concussions in their NFL journey.
In our dataset, almost 1/3rd of the players had more than one concussion, a stat that surprised me a lot to be honest.
- 102 players had only one concussion
- 37 players had two concussions
- 20 players had three or more concussions
I was surprised that still so many players had multiple concussions when playing in the NFL. But, with this data, we can view what it means for the future availability if a player had a concussion before. Do they miss more games when they already had a concussion before? The answer is yes. On average, the first concussion makes players miss 0.81 games on average. The second concussion already rises to 1.26 and the third to 1.45. This supports the idea that repeated concussions lead to longer recovery times.
Notable players
During the introduction, two players were already mentioned, so let’s take a look at their concussion history. Not only the number of concussions, but also what each concussion meant for their fantasy output. Next to Olave and Tua, I’ve added a running back and tight end as well, to get more detailed look at an example for each position.
Tua Tagovailoa
Since 2020, Tua already suffered 3 concussions, missing at least 2 games per concussion. But, what do these concussions mean for the fantasy output of Tua?
- Before Tua suffered his first concussion, he averaged around 14.2 fantasy points per game.
- After that concussion, he still managed to average 14.2 fantasy points per game, until he suffered his next concussion. This next concussion, however, was just 10 weeks after coming back from his previous concussion.
- After his second concussion, his average fantasy points per game dropped to 13.8. Until he suffered his third concussion.
- After his latest concussion, his average fantasy points per game went up from 13.8 to 17.5. But, this is a smaller sample size of only 9 games.
Chris Olave
Since coming into the league in 2022, Olave has had a concussion every season. In the last season (2024), he even had two. How does his average fantasy points per game (FPPG) change after each concussion?
- After only 5 weeks, Olave already suffered his first concussion. In these first 5 weeks, he averaged 15.18 FPPG.
- When coming back from his first concussion, his average FPPG dropped to 13.35 until his next concussion. This period was significantly longer than the period to his first concussion, so this decline does not bother me too much.
- After his second concussion, he averaged 12.94 FPPG. Still, a small decline compared to his previous period between two concussions.
- After his third concussion, he played only two games until he was concussed again. Because of the fear of another concussion and the bad season the Saints had in 2024, the team decided not to play him in the 2024 season again. We’ll have to wait and see how 2025 pans out after his fourth concussion in 3 seasons.
Austin Ekeler
Ekeler is another player with a significant concussion history. In total, he suffered four concussions. Two of them came in the last season (2024).
- Up until his first concussion, he averaged 9.86 FPPG. This was including his rookie season, where he had not the most consistent fantasy scores per week.
- After his first concussion in 2018, he suffered his next concussion at the end of the 2020 season. During this period, he averaged 16.18 FPPG. A big leap compared to his first period until his first concussion.
- After his second concussion and until his third concussion in 2024, he still managed a good amount of fantasy points per game, 15.37 on average.
- After his third concussion at the beginning of 2024, he suffered another one halfway through the 2024 season. In this small period, he averaged 14.35 FPPG.
Pat Freiermuth
The last player we are looking in detail into is tight end Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth had, compared to the other players, only 2 concussions. Both of them costing him one game.
- Until his first concussion, Freiermuth averaged 9.65 FPPG.
- After his first concussion, he averaged 9.25 FPPG, until he suffered his next concussion. This period between his first and second concussion was only 6 weeks, so the sample size in this case is small.
- After his latest concussion in 2022, he hasn’t suffered any concussions (knocks on wood). So, from that concussion until the end of the 2024 season, he averaged 9.02 FPPG. So we can see that for Freiermuth, after each concussion his average FPPG drops just a little.
Impact on your draft strategy
Should you take concussion history in consideration when creating your draft strategy or being faced with the choice between two players when you are on the clock?
The short answer is yes, you should take the effects of concussions in consideration when drafting, but there is some nuance to this yes.
When a player had a concussion, every new concussion will increasingly miss more games on average per incident. From 0.8 games after the first concussion to 1.45 after the third. Strategy tip: Use concussion history as a tiebreaker between players when drafting. If two running backs are close, lean toward the one without a recent concussion.
Not every player will perform a lot worse after a concussion – but on average, wide receivers saw a small decline in fantasy points per game. Running backs and tight ends were even more volatile, while quarterbacks showed the sharpest dips after their third concussion. The graph below shows the fantasy points per game trendline for each position group after a concussion.
Strategy tip: Monitor the trendlines. If a player had two concussion in back-to-back years and their points per game are already decreasing – that’s a red flag.
Make sure you always have the context in the back of your head. Chris Olave for example, dropped in FPPG after each concussion, but still remained fantasy-relevant. Although, his scores were not always on-par with where you drafted him. Meanwhile, Tua went on his best scoring stretch after his third concussion. So, the impact of a concussion isn’t always the same, it depends on position, team context and usage. Don’t blindly fade players, take context into account.
Strategy tip: Label players with multiple concussions as ‘upside picks’. Draft them because of their ceiling, not their floor. But, make sure you don’t count on them as your WR1 or RB1.
Conclusion
So.. do concussions affect player availability and production in the long term?
The answer: Yes, but there is some context to that.
When looking at the data of the top 150 fantasy players between 2012 and 2024, we learned a few thing:
- Repeated concussion lead to more missed time: Each new concussion adds to recovery time – from less than a game missed after the first to nearly 1.5 after the third concussion.
- Fantasy performance after concussions is inconsistent: Some players (like Tua) bounce back strong, while others (like Freiermuth) gradually decline. The trend varies by position – wide receivers showed small declines, running backs and tight ends were volatile, and quarterbacks dipped sharply after multiple concussions.
- A third of the concussed players suffered multiple concussion events: So yeah, it’s a trend.
Now, what does this mean for your draft?
You don’t need to avoid every player with a concussion history. But you do need to use it as context. If you’re doubting between two players you rank similar, let their concussion record break the tie. Someone having multiple concussions the last few seasons? Maybe don’t build your entire roster around them.
“Concussion risk is baked into my rankings. Download the free 2025 draft kit to see who gets a bump or downgrade.”
